Newspaper OpEd (2008)
Robert P. Watson
The Veep Stakes
During the 1944 presidential campaign Franklin Roosevelt's advisors realized that the President's health had deteriorated to the extent that he would likely not survive his next term in office. As such, FDR's vice president would sooner or later become president during one of the most critical moments in world history. War still raged in the European and Pacific theaters and questions loomed about the post-world order. At home, the nation was putting the Great Depression behind them and facing difficult choices in transitioning to a peacetime economy.
The sitting vice president, Henry Wallace, alienated so many party leaders that he was dropped from the ticket. Wallace was replaced by a compromise candidate: Harry Truman, an uneducated, failed haberdasher and unlikely choice given the high stakes. Sure enough, FDR died just weeks into his unprecedented fourth term leaving his new, untested VP in charge. Truman's response is the stuff of history: He successfully ended the war, helped establish the state of Israel, saved Europe with the Marshall Plan and Berlin Airlift, and promoted the GI Bill, economic relief, and civic rights on the home-front.
Like Truman, Teddy Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson were VPs who ascended to the Oval Office upon the death of presidents, and did so during critical moments in American history. Fortunately these "accidental" presidents emerged as some of the most capable presidents in the nation's history. But we have not always been so lucky. The nation has suffered the presidencies of John Tyler, Millard Fillmore, Andrew Johnson, Chester Arthur, and Calvin Coolidge, all VPs whose predecessors died in office.
So, does the VP matter? Four presidents died in office of natural causes, four were assassinated, two were nearly removed by impeachment, one resigned in disgrace, and several either died shortly after leaving office or served with serious illnesses. The answer is YES. Moreover, vice presidents, first ladies, and presidential children have all died while "serving" in office. In fact, eerily, the nation has now gone longer than anytime in history without a death in the White House – the last being John Kennedy's in 1963.
Yet, the public does not cast a vote based solely on the VP. Perhaps only once in history did the second spot on the ticket directly impact the outcome of a presidential election, and that would be Kennedy's selection of LBJ as in 1960. The concerns of Bible Belt voters with Kennedy's youth, Catholicism, and home state (Massachusetts) were mitigated by the presence of an established legislative leader from Texas as VP. At the same time, VPs do help balance the ticket geographically, ideologically, and in terms of age, appeal, and experience.
That said, the VP selection this summer will likely be the most important since Truman. Each of the three remaining candidates has liabilities that might be softened somewhat by the right vice presidential pick. For example, the ideal VP would allay concerns about McCain's limited understanding of economic policy, Obama's inexperience in foreign policy, and Clinton's likeability and electability. Moreover, there is the threat of assassination and concerns about McCain's age (71) and health problems.
One VP selection strategy is to pick a governor who can deliver a swing state for the presidential nominee. All three candidates are sitting senators (the country hasn't elected a sitting senator to the White House since 1960), whereas four of the last five presidents have been governors. As such, swing-state governors Charlie Crist (FL) and Tim Pawlenty (MN) are on McCain's list, while Ted Strickland (OH) and Tom Vilsack (IA) are on Clinton's. On the other hand, governors Haley Barbour (MS) and Mark Sanford (SC) would help McCain bolster support among Evangelicals in the South and Senator Evan Bayh (IN) might help Clinton in the Midwest. Obama needs a more seasoned VP, so senators Joe Biden (DE) and Chris Dodd (CT) make the list. But if he needs to mend wounds among women disappointed by Hillary's defeat, then governors Kathleen Sebelius (KS) and Janet Napolitano (AZ) might be the answer. Likewise, if McCain faces Clinton he might benefit by having Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn (TN) on the ticket.
Still months out from the national party conventions in late summer the short list for VP is anything but short and McCain has hinted that he might make his choice prior to the convention. Given the unpredictability of this campaign so far, who knows? It is not far-fetched to consider Democrat Joe Lieberman (CT) or Secretary of State Condi Rice as McCain's number two, New York mayor Michael Bloomberg joining Obama, or Obama as Hillary's second!
