Newspaper OpEd (2008)

Robert P. Watson

What if we had an election and everyone came?

The years of embarrassingly low voter turnout and widespread apathy toward elections are over. It is probable that, all across the country as well as in Florida, we will witness near-record turnout at the polls on November 4. This excitement and robust participation will end up being good for the democratic process but it will also benefit the Democratic Party.

In general, the higher the voter turnout the more likely Democrats are to win. Reports from the 30 or so states with early voting are showing record early turnout. Moreover, even though early voting has historically benefitted Republicans (Bush won a whopping 60% of early votes in 2004) this year the trend is reversed. Early and absentee voting could end up accounting for over one-third of all the votes cast, foreshadowing robust turnout and a Democratic victory on Tuesday.

The results from our presidential primary on January 29, when Florida had one of the most dramatic increases of any state over past primaries, suggest that Florida will mirror this national trend in turnout. Plus, increased turnout among young voters could help Obama and Democrats carry our Republican state. Consider that, during Florida's presidential primary, over three times as many voters under age 30 turned out as did in 2000.

While all would agree that high turnout is good for democracy, there are concerns. With record turnout we run the risk of overloading the system. Numerous studies have warned that the election systems in several key swing states including Florida are not ready for a spike in turnout. There were problems during the August primary election, yet on Tuesday Florida could have a four or five-fold increase in turnout over the August numbers.

In short, Florida and other states must avoid having another "Florida." But Florida is again the largest swing state in the country and the presidential race here is too close to call. The lines at the polls will be long on Election Day and there will be a second line to feed the ballots into the machines. The situation might be exasperated by the presence of a lengthy ballot with several complicated amendments. It could conceivably take senior voters and first-time voters unfamiliar with the process a long time to complete the ballot. Add to that the fact that counties in south Florida are using yet another new voting system and this critical and historic election have the potential to be the perfect storm. (I think we will be OK and voters should not be deterred by the lines and problems.)

Here in south Florida the election is interesting for other reasons, not the least of which is Tim Mahoney's campaign, which has become a carnival side-show of scandals. He will be one of the very few Democrats nationally to lose reelection. Several members of our congressional delegation such as Robert Wexler, Ron Klein, and Alcee Hastings face serious challenges this year but, unlike Mahoney, will benefit by the high Democratic turnout and dissatisfaction with Republicans.

Also, the Diaz-Balart brothers, fixtures in Miami politics and long considered unbeatable, are in the fight of their political lives. The vulnerability of Lincoln and Mario represents the possible coming of age of the Democratic Party in and a political transformation of Florida's Cuban-American community. Democratic challengers Raul Martinez and Joe Garcia are both powerful Cuban-American leaders and are tapping into the "new wave" of younger Cuban-American voters interested not simply in a hard-line stance on Cuba but in education, the economy, and our state's insurance crisis.

This election will be one for the history books. When it is over, Obama will likely get credit for energizing the process and doing a better job of registering new voters than any other campaign. This election is partly about him. However, it is also about President Bush who has been so bad for democracy in so many ways that, ironically, he may end up being good for democracy. Because of the damage done by Bush the public realizes that, like leadership, elections matter. But after exercising our democratic responsibility on Tuesday we will all need to get to work fixing the mess we are in.